Chinese Economic Performance in the Long-Run

Table of Contents

Acknowledgements

Summary and Conclusions

Chapter 1 Intensive and Extensive Growth in Imperial China

Chapter 2 Economic Decline and External Humiliation, 1820-1949

Chapter 3 Dynamics of Development in the New China

Chapter 4 The Outlook for China and the World Economy, 1995-2015

Appendix A Performance in Farming, Fishery, Forestry and Agricultural Sidelines, China 1933-95

Appendix B Industrial Performance, China 1913-95

Appendix C Growth and Level of Chinese Gross Domestic Product

Appendix D Population and Employment

Appendix E Foreign Trade

Appendix F People and Places in Pinyin and Wade-Giles

Bibliography

List of Chapter Tables, Figures and Boxes
Table 1.1 Chinese Imperial Dynasties and Capital Cities
Table 1.2 Rough Comparative Estimates of the Population of China, Europe, India, Japan and World, 50-1995 A.D.
Table 1.3 "Guesstimated" Level of Chinese and European GDP per Capita, 50-1700 A.D.
Table 1.4 Land Use and Population in China and Other Parts of the World, 1993
Table 1.5 Dated Irrigation Works by Dynasty and Irrigated Area, 1400-1995
Table 1.6 Major Magnitudes in Chinese Farming, 1400-1952
Table 1.7 Rozman's Urban Ratios for China from T'ang to Later Ch'ing
Table 1.8 De Vries' Estimates of Urban Population of Europe, 1000-1800 A.D.


Table 2.1 Comparative Levels of Economic Performance, China and Other Major Parts of the World Economy, 1700-1995
Table 2.2a Shares of World GDP, 1700-1995
Table 2.2b Rates of Growth of World GDP, 1700-1995
Table 2.2c Rates of Growth of World Per Capita GDP, 1700-1995
Table 2.3 Population by Province, China 1819-1953
Table 2.4 Exports Per Capita, China, India and Japan, 1850-1995
Table 2.5 Structure of Chinese GDP in 1933 Prices, 1890-1952
Table 2.6 Length of Railway Lines in Service, 1870-1995
Table 2.7 Stock of Direct Foreign Investment, China, 1902-36
Table 2.8 Leading Items in Chinese Commodity Trade, 1937


Table 3.1 Growth of GDP, by Sector, at Constant Prices, China 1890-1995
Table 3.2 Structure of Chinese GDP, 1890-1995
Table 3.3 China's Geopolitical Standing, 1820-1995
Table 3.4 Comparative Growth Performance, 24 Countries, 1913-95
Table 3.5 Comparative Levels of Economic Performance, 24 Countries, 1994/5
Table 3.6 Vital Statistics, Age Structure, Labour Input and Education Levels, China 1952-95
Table 3.7 Student Enrolment by Level of Education, China 1930s to 1995
Table 3.8 Years of Education Per Person Aged 15-64, Ten Countries, 1950-92
Table 3.9 Investment Ratios in Current Prices, Nine Countries, 1952-94
Table 3.10 Basic Growth Accounts, China, Japan, South Korea and the United States, 1952-95
Table 3.11a Indicators of Sectoral Growth Performance, China 1952-95
Table 3.11b Changes in Economic Structure, China 1952-95
Table 3.12 Degree of Participation in Different Forms of Socialist Agriculture, 1950-58
Table 3.13 Characteristics of Agricultural Performance, China, 1933-95
Table 3.14 Rates of Change in Farm Output, Inputs and Total Factor Productivity: Four Phases, China 1952-94
Table 3.15 Wen's Measures of Rates of Change in Agricultural Output, Inputs and Total Factor Productivity, China 1952-87
Table 3.16 Comparative Performance Levels in Chinese, Japanese, Soviet and US Farming, 1933-94
Table 3.17 Rural/Urban Distribution of Population and Employment, China 1952-95
Table 3.18 Characteristics of Small-Scale Enterprise by Type of Ownership, China 1978-96
Table 3.19 Sector Breakdown of Small-Scale Enterprise, China 1995
Table 3.20 Performance in Industry and Construction, China 1952-95
Table 3.21 Characteristics of Industrial Performance, by Type of Ownership, China 1952-96
Table 3.22 Comparative Performance Levels in Chinese, Japanese, Soviet/Russian, and US Manufacturing, 1952-94
Table 3.23 Proportionate Role of State Employment by Sector, end-year 1996
Table 3.24 Wholesale, Retail, Restaurant and Catering Trades, China 1952-96
Table 3.25a Volume of Merchandise Exports, Nine Countries and World, 1929-95
Table 3.25b Value of Merchandise Exports in Constant Prices, Nine Countries and World, 1929-95
Table 3.26 Export Performance, China 1890-1996
Table 3.27 Geographic Distribution of Commodity Trade, China 1952-96
Table 3.28 Leading Items in Chinese Commodity Trade, 1996
Table 3.29 Size and Structure of Government Revenue and Expenditure, China 1952-95


Table 4.1 World Economic Growth Performance and Potential, 217 Countries, 1952-2015
Table 4.2 Levels of World Performance and Potential, 217 Countries, 1995 and 2015
Table 4.3 Young's Growth Accounts for Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea and Taiwan 1966-90


Figure 1.1 Chinese Population 50 AD - 1996 AD
Figure 3.1 Comparative Levels of GDP in China and Four Other Big Countries, 1952-95
Figure 3.2 Confrontation of Official and Maddison Estimates of GDP Level, 1952-1995
Figure 3.3 Gross Value Added and Labour Productivity in Chinese Agriculture, 1952-95
Figure 3.4 Gross Value Added and Labour Productivity in Chinese Industry and Construction, 1952-95
Box 3.1 Key Political Events in China's Period of International Isolation, 1949-80

Appendix Tables
Table A.1 Input-Output Characteristics of Chinese Farming, Official Estimates, China, 1987
Table A.2 Official Annual Measures of Aggregate Performance in Agriculture, China 1952-95
Table A.3 Maddison Measures of Chinese Agricultural Performance, Benchmark Years, 1933-94
Table A.4 Estimated Levels of Gross Output, Inputs and Value Added in Chinese Farming, Benchmark Years, 1933-94
Table A.5 Estimated Levels of Gross Output and Value Added in Chinese Fishery, Benchmark Years, 1933-94
Table A.6 Estimated Levels of Gross Output and Value Added in Chinese Forestry, Benchmark Years, 1933-94
Table A.7 Estimated Levels of Gross Output and Value Added in Agricultural Sidelines, Benchmark Years, China 1933-94
Table A.8 Selected Traditional and Modern Inputs into Chinese Farming, Benchmark Years, 1933-95
Table A.9 Stock of Animals (year end) and Meat Output, Benchmark Years, China 1933-95
Table A.10 Land Used for Farming, Benchmark Years, China 1933-95
Table A.11 Summary Results of China/US Comparison of Farm Output and Purchasing Power, 1987
Table A.12 1987 Breakdown of Output and Inputs within Chinese Farming, Forestry, Fishery and Sidelines
Table A.13 1987 Breakdown of Output and Inputs within US Farming, Forestry, Fishery and FFF Services
Table A.l4 Comparative Levels of Farm Value Added and Labour Productivity, China/United States, Benchmark Years, 1933-94
Table A.15 Comparative Performance in Farming in l3 Countries in 1975
Table A.16 Comparative Intensity of Fertiliser Consumption, 8 Countries, 1993/4
Table A.17 China 1994: Detailed Accounts for Quantities, Prices and Value of Farm Output (part 2, part 3, part 4, part 5).
Table A.18 China 1987: Detailed Accounts for Quantities, Prices and Value of Farm Output (part 2, part 3, part 4, part 5).
Table A.19 China 1975: Detailed Accounts for Quantities, Prices and Value of Farm Output (part 2, part 3, part 4, part 5).
Table A.20 China 1952-7: Detailed Derivation of Gross Value of Farm Output
Table A.21 China 1933-75: Detailed Derivation of Gross Value of Farm Output
Table A.22a China 1987: Prices of Farm Commodities: (a) SSB market prices; (b) SSB state prices; (c) FAO producer prices
and (b) FAO producer prices
Table A.23 United States 1987: Detailed Accounts for Quantities, Prices and Value of Farm Output
Table A.24 Detailed Matching of Farm Products, China/US, 1987, FAO Data (part 2, part 3)
Table A.25 Persons Engaged in US Farming, Forestry, Fishery and Agricultural Services, Benchmark Years, 1933-94
Table A.26 Gross Value Added in US Farming, Benchmark Years, 1933-94 at 1987 Prices


Table B.1 Official Measures of Industrial Output in Current Prices, China 1952-96
Table B.2 Alternative Industrial Volume Indices Using Different Official Deflators, China 1952-95
Table B.3 Five Official Deflators for Chinese Industry, 1952-95
Table B.4 Wu's Estimates of Gross Value Added in Manufacturing, Mining and Utilities at Constant Prices, China 1952-94
Table B.5 Wu's Rates of Growth and Shares of Value Added by Industrial Branch, 1952-94
Table B.6 Liu and Yeh Estimates of Gross Value Added in Chinese Industry, 1933-57
Table B.7 Input-Output Characteristics of Chinese Industry, 1987


Table C.1 Gross Domestic Product by Sector of Origin, Benchmark Years, China 1890-1952
Table C.2 Gross Domestic Product by Sector of Origin, Benchmark Years, China 1952-94
Table C.3 Annual Estimates of Gross Domestic Product by Sector, China 1952-95
Table C.4 Growth and Level of GDP, Population and GDP Per Capita, Benchmark Years, China 1820-1995
Table C.5 Gross Domestic Product and GDP Per Capita of China and Hong Kong, 1952-95
Table C.6 Confrontation of Maddison and Official Measures of GDP Movement, 1952-95
Table C.7 Confrontation of Official and Maddison Measures of Growth Rates, China 1952-95
Table C.8 Official GDP Volume Index with 1987 Numeraire, China 1952-95
Table C.9 Official Estimates of Branch Performance in "Non-Productive" Services, at 1987 Prices, China 1952-95
Table C.10 Official Estimates of GDP by Sector at 1987 Prices, China 1952-95
Table C.11 Official and Adjusted Estimates of Investment and GDP in Current Prices, China 1952-96
Table C.12 Official and Adjusted Estimates of Investment and GDP at Constant Prices, China 1952-95
Figure C.1 Official Chinese GDP Estimates, Changing Weights and 1987 Weights, and Maddison Estimates, 1952-95


Table D.1 Chinese Population, 50 AD - 1996 AD
Table D.2 Population of Macao, Hong Kong and Taiwan, 1850-1995
Table D.3 Employment by Sector, Old Classification, China 1952-95
Table D.4a Employment by Sector, New Classification, China 1978-96
Table D.4b State Employment by Sector, New Classification, China 1978-96
Table D.5 Liu and Yeh Estimates of Employment by Sector, 1933-57
Table D.6 A Comparison of SSB and Adjusted Liu-Yeh Estimates of Chinese Employment, 1952-57


Table E.1 Value of Chinese Merchandise Trade, 1850-1938
Table E.2 Value of Merchandise Trade of China, Taiwan and Hong Kong, 1950-96
Table E.3 Exchange Rates, 1870-1996
Table E.4 Volume of Chinese Exports, 1867-1995
Table E.5 Foreign Trade in Cereals, China 1950-95


Table F.1 Chinese Rulers, 1368-1997
Table F.2 Characteristics of China's 30 Provinces in 1995